Table 1.6 - Banco de España
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1.6 HOUSING MARKET INDICATORS
a) Most significant variables
16-April-2015 12:33:35
Annual data 2012
2013
Quarterly data 2014
14 Q1
14 Q2
14 Q3
Monthly data 14 Q4
15 Q1
Dec 14
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Prices and costs (a) Housing Price Index (INE) (annual rate) National total . . . . . . . New housing (first transfer) . . . . . . . . . Second-hand housing . . . . . . . . . . .
-13.8 -12.3 -14.9
-10.5 -10.4 -10.8
0.3 0.9 0.1
-1.6 -1.1 -1.7
0.8 1.9 0.2
0.3 0.8 0.1
1.8 1.9 1.7
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
Appraisals (Ministerio de Fomento) Average price per m2 for open-market housing National total (annual rate) . . . . . . . . . . National total (EUR/m2) . . . . . . . . . . .
-8.7 1 588
-5.8 1 495
-2.4 1 459
-3.8 1 459
-2.9 1 459
-2.6 1 456
-0.3 1 463
... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
Based on age (annual rate) New housing (2 years) . . . . . . .
-7.5 -8.9
-4.2 -6.4
-2.5 -2.5
-3.0 -4.2
-2.8 -2.9
-2.9 -2.6
-1.2 -0.2
... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
Based on region (annual rate) Madrid and Barcelona provinces . . . . . . . East coast, south coast and island provinces . Other mainland provinces, Ceuta and Melilla .
-10.5 -9.5 -8.5
-5.7 -6.6 -4.1
-0.9 -2.4 -4.1
-2.0 -4.2 -5.6
-1.2 -3.0 -4.9
-1.2 -2.7 -3.4
0.6 0.3 -2.3
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
Asking prices (annual rate) New housing (b) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Second-hand housing . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-6.2 -8.7
-7.9 -9.9
-3.5 -5.8
... -7.6
-4.8 -5.7
... -5.2
-2.2 -4.5
... ...
... -4.2
... -4.5
... -4.3
... ...
Rentals CPI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
-0.2
-0.7
-0.6
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
-0.7
-0.6
-0.6
-0.5
Index of building costs . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
-0.6
0.0
-0.4
0.1
0.3
-0.0
...
-0.2
-0.4
...
...
Housing investment deflator (QSNA) . . . . . . .
-6.4
-7.3
-1.3
-3.4
-0.4
-0.9
0.0
...
...
...
...
...
Housing approvals in last twelve months (c) National total (annual rate) . . . . . . . . . . . National total (thousands) . . . . . . . . . . .
-43.6 44
-22.4 34
1.7 35
-18.3 33
-8.4 34
2.4 36
1.7 35
... ...
1.7 35
7.0 36
... ...
... ...
Housing starts in last twelve months (c) National total (annual rate) . . . . . . . . . . . National total (thousands) . . . . . . . . . . .
-40.0 52
-31.0 36
... ...
-18.0 36
-15.2 35
-1.8 37
... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
Based on type of housing (thousands) Unsubsidised . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Subsidised . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Subsidised as % of total . . . . . . . . . . .
35 17 33.2
29 6 18.2
... 5 ...
30 6 16.6
30 5 15.4
31 6 16.1
... 5 ...
... ... ...
... 5 ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
Based on region (annual rate) Madrid and Barcelona provinces . . . . . . . East coast, south coast and island provinces . . Other mainland provinces, Ceuta and Melilla . .
-34.5 -40.9 -41.7
-28.6 -18.5 -37.3
... ... ...
0.1 ... ...
-1.1 ... ...
31.7 ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
Before a notary public (Ministerio de Fomento) National total (annual rate) . . . . . . . . . . National total (thousands) . . . . . . . . . .
4.2 364
-17.3 301
21.6 366
48.7 82
12.6 92
13.9 80
19.5 112
... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
Based on age (annual rate) New housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Second-hand housing . . . . . . . . . . .
-9.0 11.8
-51.4 -1.3
-3.2 27.4
40.5 50.4
0.1 15.4
-12.9 20.5
-20.9 29.4
... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
Based on region (annual rate) Madrid and Barcelona provinces . . . . . . . East coast, south coast and island provinces . Other mainland provinces . . . . . . . . . .
4.0 8.0 0.2
-10.9 -9.8 -29.6
31.7 15.7 23.1
74.3 37.5 48.2
24.5 6.3 14.1
25.9 6.7 16.7
19.9 18.2 20.9
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
Registered National total (annual rate) . . . . . . . . . . National total (thousands) . . . . . . . . . .
-11.5 319
-1.9 313
2.1 319
-14.6 83
6.4 79
7.8 79
15.3 78
... ...
15.7 26
9.6 33
15.5 30
... ...
Based on age (annual rate) New housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Second-hand housing . . . . . . . . . . .
-10.6 -12.3
-7.8 3.8
-17.2 18.6
-24.4 -4.7
-2.1 12.9
-14.7 25.6
-24.2 47.9
... ...
-33.1 61.1
-37.1 50.8
-28.6 50.4
... ...
Housing investment (annual rate)(QSNA)(a) . . . .
-9.0
-7.6
-1.8
-6.6
-2.0
-0.2
2.1
...
...
...
...
...
Activity Supply
Demand Number of house purchase transactions
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ BANCO DE ESPAÑA / SUMMARY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
1.6 HOUSING MARKET INDICATORS
a) Most significant variables (continued)
16-April-2015 12:33:40
Annual data 2012
2013
Quarterly data 2014
14 Q1
14 Q2
14 Q3
Monthly data 14 Q4
15 Q1
Dec 14
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Demographic variables (c) Population >=25 years of age (EPA. 2005 methodology) Annual change (thousands) . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-1
-139
30
-154
-72
-11
30
...
...
...
...
...
Households (EPA. 2005 methodology) Number (millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Annual change (thousands) . . . . . . . . . . . .
18.15 158
18.25 91
18.36 117
18.27 86
18.33 127
18.36 135
18.36 117
... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
1.45
1.45
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
. . . .
23.2 58.3 15.7 3.4
22.2 57.5 14.9 3.2
22.6 59.5 13.4 3.1
22.5 58.1 12.5 3.3
22.4 59.1 13.5 3.2
22.9 59.7 13.5 3.1
22.8 60.9 14.1 2.8
... ... ... ...
... ... ... 2.6
... ... ... 2.7
... ... ... 2.7
... ... ... ...
Labour market Employment (EPA. 2005 methodology) (annual change) (thousands) (c) . . . . . . . . . . Rate of youth unemployment (20-29 years of age) (2005 methodology)(a) . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-814
-204
434
-80
192
274
434
...
...
...
...
...
37.9
40.1
37.7
40.1
37.3
36.5
36.8
...
...
...
...
...
6.9 39.6 32.0
6.3 36.4 36.4
6.3 35.7 35.7
6.2 36.0 36.0
6.4 36.5 36.5
6.4 35.5 35.5
6.4 34.8 34.8
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
Net household financial wealth (c) Annual rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . As % of GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.5 78.0
25.3 98.3
13.5 110.6
25.0 104.2
31.7 111.8
22.2 111.7
13.5 110.6
... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
Household real-estate wealth (c) Annual rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ratio to GDP (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-12.6 429.3
-7.9 397.8
1.6 400.7
-1.7 396.3
0.7 402.4
0.1 401.6
1.6 400.7
... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
Total household wealth (c) Ratio to GDP (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
507.4
496.1
511.3
500.5
514.2
513.3
511.3
...
...
...
...
...
Total credit to the non-financial private sector Annual rate (a) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-3.3
-5.9
-5.0
-5.9
-5.2
-4.6
-4.5
...
-4.1
-4.1
-3.2
...
Total mortgage credit Annual rate (a) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Outstanding balance as % of GDP (c) . . . . . . . .
-8.7 85.7
-13.7 74.6
-9.1 68.6
-10.9 72.7
-9.6 71.6
-8.7 70.0
-7.3 68.6
... ...
-6.6 ...
-6.6 ...
-6.5 ...
... ...
Credit to households for house purchase Annual rate (a) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Outstanding balance as % of GDP (c) . . . . . . . .
-2.8 61.0
-4.2 58.5
-4.1 55.5
-4.4 57.7
-4.2 57.2
-4.0 56.4
-3.9 55.5
... ...
-3.8 ...
-3.8 ...
-3.7 ...
... ...
Number of new mortgage loans (annual rate) Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . For house purchase . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-16.8 -12.4
-27.1 -28.1
... ...
... ...
-26.3 -3.8
-11.0 10.2
-17.6 6.8
... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
Financing under housing schemes Annual rate (a) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . As % of credit for house purchase (c) . . . . . . . .
-1.8 5.4
-9.8 5.1
-10.6 4.6
-9.9 5.0
-9.5 4.8
-10.7 4.8
-12.2 4.6
... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
Doubtful loans to households for house purchase and renovation. Doubtful loans ratio (a) . . . . . . . .
3.48
5.26
6.09
6.32
6.11
6.01
5.91
...
...
...
...
...
Number of dwellings per household
. . . . . . . . .
Affordability Borrowing conditions (a) Average new mortgage term (years) . Loan/value ratio (%)(LTV)(New loans) . Percentage of new loans with LTV>80% Interest rate on unsubsidised loans (%)
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
Measures of affordability (a) House price/gross disposable household income (years) Annual theoretical affordability without deductions (%) . Annual theoretical affordability with deductions (%) . .
Wealth
Credit (including securitisation)
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ BANCO DE ESPAÑA / SUMMARY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
1.6 HOUSING MARKET INDICATORS
a) Most significant variables (continued)
16-April-2015 12:33:43
Annual data 2012
2013
Quarterly data 2014
14 Q1
14 Q2
14 Q3
Monthly data 14 Q4
15 Q1
Dec 14
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Return on alternative investment Cumulative return over last 12 months (c) Housing (rental plus change in prices) . . Gross return on rental . . . . . . . . . 10 year government bonds (e) . . . . . Deposits from households and NPISH. (f) Stock market (IBEX-35) . . . . . . . .
-9.0 3.8 5.3 2.7 -4.7
-3.5 4.3 4.1 1.6 21.4
6.4 4.7 1.6 0.7 3.7
3.0 4.6 3.2 1.3 30.6
5.4 4.6 2.7 1.1 40.7
4.9 4.6 2.2 1.0 17.8
6.4 4.7 1.6 0.7 3.7
... ... 1.2 ... 11.4
... ... 1.6 0.7 3.7
... ... 1.5 0.7 4.9
... ... 1.3 0.6 10.5
... ... 1.2 ... 11.4
-15.8 0.9 -2.7 -5.9 -9.0 -4.1 -1.1 -2.1 -1.5
-12.0 1.6 -3.1 -6.9 -9.0 -3.3 1.0 2.6 0.7
0.5 2.3 -2.4 -4.4 0.6 -0.3 8.4 4.0 ...
-1.6 1.4 -2.7 -5.3 -1.9 -1.3 6.1 3.9 ...
0.6 1.6 -2.1 -5.3 0.9 -0.5 8.3 3.9 ...
0.6 2.3 -1.9 -3.8 1.5 0.0 10.1 3.9 ...
2.4 3.9 -2.8 -3.0 2.0 0.7 9.0 4.2 ...
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
... ... ... ... 2.1 ... 9.2 ... ...
... ... ... ... 2.8 ... 8.1 ... ...
... ... ... ... 2.8 ... ... ... ...
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
International comparison Real prices indices (annual rates) (a) Spain . . . . . Germany . . . France . . . . Italy . . . . . Netherlands . . Euro area . . . United Kingdom United States . Japan . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
Sources: INE, Ministerio de Fomento, Colegio de Registradores, Sociedad de Tasación, Fotocasa, Expocasa, Sociedad de Bolsas S.A., BIS, OECD, ECB and Banco de España.(See accompanying methodological note). (a) Period average. (b) Half-yearly data. (c) End of period. (d) Includes residential and non-residential property. (e) Secondary market. (f) Deposits at credit institutions over 1 and up to 2 years. Interest rates (NDER) on new business . NEDR: narrowly defined effective rate, which is the same as the APRC without including commissions.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ BANCO DE ESPAÑA / SUMMARY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
1.6 HOUSING MARKET INDICATORS
b) Memorandum item
16-April-2015 12:33:53
1970
1981
1991
2001
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
14 726 134
17 206 363
20 946 554
24 937 572
25 130 992
25 208 623
25 276 303
25 256 840
79.8 7.5 12.7
70.8 12.9 16.3
68.2 17.0 14.8
67.7 17.4 14.8
... ... ...
... ... ...
71.7 14.6 13.7
... ... ...
... ... ...
63.4 30.1 6.5
73.1 20.8 6.1
78.3 15.2 6.5
82.2 11.4 6.5
... ... ...
... ... ...
78.9 13.5 7.6
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
79.3 13.5 7.2
84.5 9.6 5.9
79.3 14.6 6.1
79.4 14.5 6.1
79.6 14.9 5.5
79.2 14.5 6.3
77.7 15.4 6.9
Housing stock Number of dwellings (Censuses)(a) . . . . . . . 10 658 882
Percentage of dwellings (Censuses) Primary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Secondary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Unoccupied and other . . . . . . . . . . . .
Percentage of primary dwellings (Censuses) Owner-occupied . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rented . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Free let and other . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Percentage of primary dwellings (b) Owner-occupied . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rented . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Free let and other . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
HOUSING STOCK TYPE OF DWELLING
80
HOUSING STOCK PRIMARY DWELLINGS BY TYPE OF TENURE
PRIMARY SECONDARY UNOCCUPIED AND OTHER
%
%
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
90 %
% 90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
30
20
20
10
0
OWNER-OCCUPIED RENTED FREE LET AND OTHER
10
1970
1981
1991
2001
2011
0
0
1970
1981
1991
2001
2011
0
Source: INE and Banco de España. (a) Years between censuses: Banco de España estimates. (b) To 2004, Household Budget Continuous Survey (HBCS); from 2005 to 2011, Living Conditions Survey (LCS).
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ BANCO DE ESPAÑA / SUMMARY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
1.6 HOUSING MARKET INDICATORS 16-APRIL-2015 12:33:59
AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE PER M2 (annual rates)
20
%
PRICES AND COSTS (annual rates)
General Index, INE Open-market housing prices, M. Fomento Supply second-hand housing %
20
20 %
ACTIVITY (annual rates)
House prices (INE) Housing investment deflator Building costs (a)
%20
40
%
Housing starts Housing investment
%
20 10
10
10
20
10 0
0
0
-10
-10
0
0
-10
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
-10 -60
-20
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Source:INE, M. Fomento, Fotocasa y Expocasa.
-20
-20
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Sources:INE and M. Fomento.
SUBSIDISED HOUSING
700 600
25
500
20
400
15 300
10
200 100
5
0
0
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Sources: Ministerio de Fomento and Banco de España.
thousands
NEW HOUSE PURCHASES (Cumulative figure for the last twelve months)
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500
thousands 1200 1000 800
-200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 -1200 -1400 -1600
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Sources: Ministerio de Fomento and INE.
150
20
150
100
100
House prices (annual rate)(INE) CPI for rentals (annual rate) Gross return on rental (R-H scale)
50
10
0
-10 -15
0
0 12 13 14 15 Sources: Ministerio de Fomento, Colegio de Registradores and INE.
-20
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Sources: INE and Banco de España.
AFFORDABILITY
60 50 40 30 20 10 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Source: Banco de España.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
% 700
600 500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0 10 11 12 13 14 15 Sources: Ministerio de Fomento , Colegio de Registradores and INE.
6 5
12
%25
80
20
60
15
40
10
20
5
0
0
-20
-5
-40
-10
-60
-15
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Sources: Sociedad de Bolsas,S.A. and Banco de España.
250
500
For house purchase Mortgage credit Total non-financial corporations, households%and NPISHs 30
20
20
10
10
200
400 150 300
0
100 0
0
100
200
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Source: Banco de España.
50
-10
0
-20
-10
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Source: Banco de España.
REAL PRICE INDEX
7
14
100 %
Housing 10 year government bonds (secondary market) 1 to 2 year deposits from households and NPISH Stock market (IBEX 35)(L-H scale)
CREDIT (INCLUDING SECURITISATION)
600
Interest rate % Doubtful credit ratio (R-H scale) (b)
16
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3
Net household financial wealth (% GDP) (R-H scale) Household real-estate wealth (% GDP)(Base year 2001) % Total household wealth (% GDP) 300 30 %
CREDIT FOR HOUSE PURCHASE
18
Before a notary public (M.Fomento) thousands Association of Registrars
500
HOUSEHOLD WEALTH
House price/gross disposable household income(R-H scale) Annual theoretical affordability without deductions years Annual theoretical affordability with deductions
70
%
600
%
-5 50
-80
ANNUAL RETURNS
5
0
thousands
CPI FOR RENTALS AND HOUSE PRICES
15
%
-60
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Sources: M. Fomento and INE.
thousands
200
80
-80
HOUSE PURCHASES (Cumulative figure for the last twelve months)
600 400 200 0
Before a notary public (M.Fomento) % Association of Registrars
200
-20
HOUSING STARTS AND CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT AND HOUSEHOLDS
Unsubsidised housing starts Housing starts Subsidised housing starts Employment (R-H scale) % thousands Subsidised financing as % of credit for house purchase (R-H scale) Households 900 30
thousands
40
2005=100 130
Spain Italy France Netherlands Germany
-20
REAL PRICE INDEX
2005=100 2005=100 130 130.00
Euro area United Kingdom United States
2005=100 130.00
120
120
121.25
121.25
110
110
112.50
112.50
103.75
103.75
10
4
100
100
8
3
90
90
95.00
95.00
80
80
86.25
86.25
6
2
4 2 0
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Source: Banco de España
70
70
77.50
77.50
1
60
60
68.75
68.75
0
50
50
60.00
60.00
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Sources: BIS, OECD, ECB and Banco de España.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Sources: BIS, ECB and Banco de España.
a) Before January 2007, building costs base 1990=100. b) Before December 1997, doubtful loans ratio of mortgage credit of banks and savings banks. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ BANCO DE ESPAÑA / SUMMARY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
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